Race 8 · Lyon Parillypool vs model · Tue 6 Oct 2026
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 6MARHARRY+0.220% · 20%
  2. 4HE TOUCHED ME+3.516% · 12%
  3. 3NOVA HOPE+0.013% · 13%
  4. 7KODIACOLOR-3.912% · 16%
  5. 2HAZA-2.811% · 14%
  6. 5MAKAROV-1.99% · 11%
  7. 1JOH SPIRIT+2.78% · 5%
Result pending · record

Chantilly picks — Wed 7 Oct 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's French cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 1,312 races, for every French track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

8 races today · 3 days on file · walk-forward test on 712 races out of sample · how it scored

Wed 7 Oct 2026 · 1 track0 usable of 8 races · model overturns the favourite in 0Written Tue 06 Oct 2026, 21:13 Paris time · permalink

Pools not open yet

The Turkish tote opens its win pool on these 8 French races on the morning of the card (it stays thin until close to post time). This page was written from the race cards alone; verdicts and pool shares fill in about an hour before each track’s first race, once the pool has formed. Meanwhile: yesterday's results · the record.

Unproven model — read this first

In a walk-forward test on 712 races the combined model did not beat the tote pool (-0.3 points on top-3 coverage). The ranks below are published as an open experiment: each one is written before the race and scored on the record, with the pool favourite as the benchmark to beat.

Today · Wed 7 Oct 2026

8 races across Chantilly. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = TJK win-pool share when the page was written; edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 1 · Chantilly · 7 runners

NO POOL YET
1400m Synthetic · Allowance · 3yo Thoroughbreds · 6 of 7 with French form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 3STREET SHOWMAXIME GUYON · P&J. BRANDT · draw 6 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 6DACHKOVA (IRE)CRISTIAN DEMURO · M. DELCHER SANCHEZ · draw 7 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 1BOURGOINPIERRE-CHARLES BOUDOT · F. CHAPPET · draw 4 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 5VIVA LA SKIDSSEAN KIRRANE (GBR) · A. WEST · draw 1 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 2ETCHEBASTERSTEPHANE PASQUIER · CLEMENT & HERMANS · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 7TIMES JUBILEE (IRE)AUGUSTIN MADAMET · V. HEAD · draw 2 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 4GIZMO (GB)THEO BACHELOT · G. BIETOLINI · draw 3 · pool — · market #7—#7

Race 2 · Chantilly · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
1400m Synthetic · Maiden · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 4 of 9 with French form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 7PERFECT PITCH (GB)PIERRE-CHARLES BOUDOT · A&L. FABRE · draw 7 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 6CALYX EXPRESSCRISTIAN DEMURO · L. BLANCHET · draw 3 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 2MAYFAIR TIME (IRE)MICKAEL BARZALONA · A. SCHUTZ · draw 8 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 5LUCKY VOWSCAMILLE COLLET-VIDAL · ROB. COLLET · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 3OMARBEKSTEPHANE PASQUIER · HA. PANTALL · draw 6 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 4MAG MAS (IRE)THEO BACHELOT · G. BIETOLINI · draw 1 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 9WILD TRUEAUGUSTIN MADAMET · M. DELCHER SANCHEZ · draw 4 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 1ALPHA LEPORISGLEN MEURY · M. DELCHER SANCHEZ · draw 9 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 8GOOSEMANPIERRE REMOUE · L. BAUDRON · draw 5 · pool — · market #9—#9

Race 3 · Chantilly · 12 runners

NO POOL YET
1400m Synthetic · Maiden · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 4 of 12 with French form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 7MUHAATHERCHRISTOPHE SOUMILLON · M. DELCHER SANCHEZ · draw 2 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 1STRONG CROWN (IRE)PIERRE-CHARLES BOUDOT · A. SCHUTZ · draw 3 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 3RISCALCRISTIAN DEMURO · M. BARATTI · draw 1 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 10RING JOYMAXIME GUYON · C. FERLAND · draw 7 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 6WHY NOTMARC LERNER · C&Y. LERNER · draw 6 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 5LATISANAHDORIAN PROVOST · J. ANDREU · draw 8 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 11ALETHEIAALEXIS POUCHIN · A&L. FABRE · draw 4 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 8ALMOONTASIRATHEO BACHELOT · G. NAKOUZI · draw 10 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 12NEKOSHIMAAURELIEN LEMAITRE · S. KOBAYASHI · draw 9 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 9SIOUX PAPILLONCLEMENT LECOEUVRE · BUTEL & BEAUNEZ · draw 12 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 2NEW EVEARTHUR VILCHIEN · M. BLANCPAIN · draw 5 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 4SELINUNTE (IRE)FRIDA VALLE SKAR · M. GUARNIERI · draw 11 · pool — · market #12—#12

Race 4 · Chantilly · 16 runners

NO POOL YET
1900m Synthetic · Handicap · 4yo+ Thoroughbreds · 16 of 16 with French form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 3BAILEYS ECLAIRMARIE VELON · M. DREAN · draw 2 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 2YOUM IN LOVECLEMENT LECOEUVRE · FX. BELVISI · draw 16 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 5CLOUD MANCRISTIAN DEMURO · K. HOSTE · draw 4 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 1SENECHALE (GB)GLEN MEURY · JE. MORICE · draw 12 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 9MAGUROCOSTANTINO CARBONI · G. VERHEYE · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 4ADWAN (GB)LAURA GROSSO · J. LEBOSSE · draw 8 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 6RIVER DAVENJEROME MOUTARD · C. RESTOUT · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 13NOT SO SILLYLEA BAILS · D. DE WAELE · draw 6 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 7MAGIC MIDGREYLAURA POGGIONOVO · FX. BELVISI · draw 5 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 14ALPENGEIST (GB)LUDOVIC BOISSEAU · B. DE KONINCK · draw 1 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 8QUI EVIDAMENT QUIDELPHINE SANTIAGO · CH. PLISSON · draw 10 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 10EMPRESS STARLIZE GHYS-DIETEREN (BEL) · S. GHYS · draw 13 · pool — · market #12—#12
  13. 11ZYGFRYDEDDY HARDOUIN · C. AUVRAY · draw 15 · pool — · market #13—#13
  14. 12ZOUBAREVACESAR BELMONT · M. ANDRIANTSOA RATSIMIHAH · draw 9 · pool — · market #14—#14
  15. 15LA MOMYFRIDA VALLE SKAR · A. MCMAHON-REIDY · draw 11 · pool — · market #15—#15
  16. 16KASIMSKAMAELIE PIEN · M. ROSSEEL · draw 14 · pool — · market #16—#16

Race 5 · Chantilly · 16 runners

NO POOL YET
1900m Synthetic · Handicap · 4yo+ Thoroughbreds · 16 of 16 with French form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 2MELANIES JOY (GB)MICKAEL BARZALONA · N. CAULLERY · draw 3 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 7HARTWOOD MANCRISTIAN DEMURO · V. DISSAUX · draw 5 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 1WILLOWERALEXIS POUCHIN · E. LIBAUD · draw 11 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 13BELLA CIAOLAURA POGGIONOVO · J. MERIENNE · draw 15 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 12BOBBY JEANSTEPHANE PASQUIER · J. DA SILVA · draw 8 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 9PACO (IRE)MARIE VELON · C. BOUTIN · draw 4 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 5LUNALAFABIEN LEFEBVRE · H. BOUJARDINE · draw 12 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 6JACK OF TRADES (IRE)AUGUSTIN MADAMET · D. DE WULF · draw 6 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 8AMBRA ANTICAFRIDA VALLE SKAR · J. GOOSSENS · draw 16 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 3INKIOSTRODELPHINE SANTIAGO · J. GOOSSENS · draw 9 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 10JOUKOVKAEDDY HARDOUIN · C. AUVRAY · draw 10 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 14DIEGO D'ARTOISGABIN SEIGNEUL · D. GRANDIN · draw 1 · pool — · market #12—#12
  13. 11SICILIAAURELIEN LEMAITRE · Y. VOLLMER · draw 2 · pool — · market #13—#13
  14. 15JOAOTHOMAS TRULLIER · Y. LUYCKX · draw 7 · pool — · market #14—#14
  15. 4FELIPPO (IRE)JEROME MOUTARD · L. GUILLOUX · draw 14 · pool — · market #15—#15
  16. 16NOBLE ANGEL (GB)SOPHIE TISON · A. HERMANS · draw 13 · pool — · market #16—#16

Race 6 · Chantilly · 14 runners

NO POOL YET
1200m Turf · Handicap · 3yo Thoroughbreds · 14 of 14 with French form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 1NAVACERRADACRISTIAN DEMURO · G. HERNON · draw 3 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 7MISTY CITYLORETTE GALLO · M. BOUTIN · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 4AVEC DES SITHOMAS TRULLIER · JUL. PHELIPPON · draw 9 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 6PERFECT MOONCAMILLE COLLET-VIDAL · ROB. COLLET · draw 8 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 5KENDAROMAXIME GUYON · N. CAULLERY · draw 2 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 3AMELIAAUGUSTIN MADAMET · A. SCHEPENS · draw 4 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 10NIOUININONEDDY HARDOUIN · G. VERHEYE · draw 11 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 2LOVE ADDICTLUDOVIC BOISSEAU · J. PLANQUE · draw 7 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 11POSSIPIERRE REMOUE · M. BOUTIN · draw 6 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 8CHACUN SA VIEFRIDA VALLE SKAR · M. BOUTIN · draw 10 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 9HATSLIANADELPHINE SANTIAGO · G. RARICK · draw 13 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 14CHARM PLATINPERRINE CHEYER · C. BARANDE BARBE · draw 5 · pool — · market #12—#12
  13. 12BAILEYS HIP HOPAURELIEN LEMAITRE · JV. TOUX · draw 14 · pool — · market #13—#13
  14. 13FARAWAY TREE (GB)SOPHIE TISON · N. VERMEULEN · draw 12 · pool — · market #14—#14

Race 7 · Chantilly · 16 runners

NO POOL YET
1900m Synthetic · Handicap · 4yo+ Thoroughbreds · 15 of 16 with French form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 3JOYEUSE SAGEFRIDA VALLE SKAR · P. ADDA · draw 2 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 2FLY HALFAUGUSTIN MADAMET · P. ADDA · draw 10 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 4PIERRE LE GRAND (GB)MAXIME GUYON · E. LACAILLE · draw 3 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 1NOOTKA BAYMARIE VELON · S. JESUS · draw 6 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 6DOUBLE EFFECT (IRE)CRISTIAN DEMURO · D. SMAGA · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 9KIEVSKYEDDY HARDOUIN · G. GADBLED · draw 11 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 10JUDICIOUS GAMEDORIAN PROVOST · M. BRASME · draw 9 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 12MONEY MONEYCESAR BELMONT · T. DE VLAMINCK · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 7EMINENCE GRISEALEXIS POUCHIN · E. LIBAUD · draw 15 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 16ANDY'S SPIRITSTEPHANE PASQUIER · J. LE STANG · draw 1 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 8TWARABPIERRE REMOUE · F. MONNIER · draw 4 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 11CEROS GOLDJEROME MOUTARD · M. RENGGLI · draw 12 · pool — · market #12—#12
  13. 13NEUSCHWANSTEINCHRISTOPHE SOUMILLON · V. DISSAUX · draw 13 · pool — · market #13—#13
  14. 5MOON RIDERCAMILLE COLLET-VIDAL · ROB. COLLET · draw 16 · pool — · market #14—#14
  15. 15BRAVE SHIINAAURELIEN LEMAITRE · Y. VOLLMER · draw 7 · pool — · market #15—#15
  16. 14AUCOEURDELANUITCLEMENT LECOEUVRE · M. GUARNIERI · draw 14 · pool — · market #16—#16

Race 8 · Chantilly · 14 runners

NO POOL YET
1200m Turf · Handicap · 3yo Thoroughbreds · 13 of 14 with French form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 1ADONIDESTEPHANE PASQUIER · CLEMENT & HERMANS · draw 3 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 2MARBELLESACHRISTOPHE SOUMILLON · M. DELCHER SANCHEZ · draw 11 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 6OSHIAMICKAEL BARZALONA · S. JESUS · draw 9 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 7VIZIOSA (IRE)ALEXIS POUCHIN · G. BIETOLINI · draw 1 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 5SKY DREAMCRISTIAN DEMURO · M. BARATTI · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 11HOLLIE WOODTHOMAS TRULLIER · JUL. PHELIPPON · draw 2 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 4INDY B (IRE)AURELIEN LEMAITRE · J. REYNIER · draw 10 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 12GOUTTES DE DIEURONAN THOMAS · C&Y. LERNER · draw 7 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 9DAMN PRECIOUS (GB)THEO BACHELOT · D. ARTU · draw 12 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 10SIGHISHFRIDA VALLE SKAR · M. GUARNIERI · draw 4 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 8ZENADIAAMBRE MOLINS · CH. PLISSON · draw 6 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 3SAINT SAENSMARIE VELON · Y. BARBEROT · draw 13 · pool — · market #12—#12
  13. 14ROMAN BOYAUGUSTIN MADAMET · F. JOLIVET · draw 14 · pool — · market #13—#13
  14. 13YOHIO. · A. FOUASSIER · draw 8 · pool — · market #14—#14

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on French racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 1,312 French races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 712 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-7.2 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves -0.3 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: failed. The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.63 · form3 -0.37 · jokey +0.22 · sahip +0.22 · adres -0.17 · son_bitis +0.16 · antrenor +0.14 · draw -0.13 · n_gecmis +0.08 · hp +0.06 · aygir +0.05 · kgs +0.04 · siklet +0.03 · h2h +0.02 · damsire -0.01 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have French form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

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