Race 7 · Deauvillepool vs model · Mon 5 Oct 2026
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 2DEUX PONTS (GER)-20.829% · 50%
  2. 1MONARCO+2.314% · 12%
  3. 3STRATOVULCANO (GB)+5.512% · 6%
  4. 5RUE RECAMIER+0.39% · 9%
  5. 8GARIGA-0.17% · 7%
  6. 7ALTIA+0.26% · 6%
  7. 9CORYPHEENE+2.35% · 3%
Result pending · record

Lyon Parilly picks — Tue 6 Oct 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's French cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 1,312 races, for every French track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

8 races today · 2 days on file · walk-forward test on 712 races out of sample · how it scored

Tue 6 Oct 2026 · 1 track0 usable of 8 races · model overturns the favourite in 0Written Mon 05 Oct 2026, 21:12 Paris time · permalink

Pools not open yet

The Turkish tote opens its win pool on these 8 French races on the morning of the card (it stays thin until close to post time). This page was written from the race cards alone; verdicts and pool shares fill in about an hour before each track’s first race, once the pool has formed. Meanwhile: yesterday's results · the record.

Unproven model — read this first

In a walk-forward test on 712 races the combined model did not beat the tote pool (-0.3 points on top-3 coverage). The ranks below are published as an open experiment: each one is written before the race and scored on the record, with the pool favourite as the benchmark to beat.

Today · Tue 6 Oct 2026

8 races across Lyon Parilly. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = TJK win-pool share when the page was written; edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 1 · Lyon Parilly · 5 runners

NO POOL YET
2200m Turf · Allowance · 3yo Thoroughbreds · 3 of 5 with French form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 1SHANOURMICKAEL BARZALONA · M. DELZANGLES · draw 4 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 5MUSIC'S GIRL (IRE)ANTONIO ORANI · J. REYNIER · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 4HEPBURNMARVIN GRANDIN · C. ESCUDER · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 2VASSYPIERRE-CHARLES BOUDOT · CHR. HEAD · draw 5 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 3SET APART (GB)AURELIEN LEMAITRE · V. HEAD · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#5

Race 2 · Lyon Parilly · 7 runners

NO POOL YET
1600m Turf · Maiden/Colts & geldings · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 4 of 7 with French form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 6ADOMATO (GB)MICKAEL BARZALONA · FH. GRAFFARD · draw 4 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 3SI NOIRMARVIN GRANDIN · C. ESCUDER · draw 2 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 2MUNCHPIERRE-CHARLES BOUDOT · CHR. HEAD · draw 1 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 4ELMO PUTNEYEBBE VERHESTRAETEN · A. MURPHY · draw 7 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 1LOUKPANCRISTIAN DEMURO · HA. PANTALL · draw 6 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 5ARIONANTONIO ORANI · J. ANDREU · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 7LINTERCEPTOREDDY HARDOUIN · M. PITART · draw 3 · pool — · market #7—#7

Race 3 · Lyon Parilly · 11 runners

NO POOL YET
1600m Turf · Maiden, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 7 of 11 with French form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 6PERLE DE LUNEMARVIN GRANDIN · C. ESCUDER · draw 3 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 2CAPBEARD FAL (GB)ANTONIO ORANI · M. SCANDELLA-LACAILLE · draw 7 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 8TOKYO DREAMSCRISTIAN DEMURO · G. HERNON · draw 5 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 5SEA JOLIEHUGO BOUTIN · R. FRADET · draw 10 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 9MUHARA MOONMAXENCE MARQUETTE · G. MOSSE · draw 2 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 1BEMARASTEPHANE PASQUIER · HA. PANTALL · draw 4 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 7PEARL OF LIPSAUGUSTIN MADAMET · A. SCHUTZ · draw 8 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 4LATZIAEDDY HARDOUIN · M. PITART · draw 1 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 11MALITORNEDORIAN PROVOST · P. DECOUZ · draw 6 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 10KLEINE STER (IRE)AURELIEN LEMAITRE · F. CHAPPET · draw 11 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 3ZELROMYMARIE VELON · M. SCANDELLA-LACAILLE · draw 9 · pool — · market #11—#11

Race 4 · Lyon Parilly · 6 runners

NO POOL YET
2000m Turf · Maiden · 3yo Thoroughbreds · 5 of 6 with French form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 2SAMOR (GB)ENZO CORALLO · C. FERLAND · draw 3 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 5NATURALISTECHRISTOPHE BILLARDELLO · F. FORESI · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 4GAREYA (IRE)MICKAEL BARZALONA · M. DELZANGLES · draw 5 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 1MAGNUS (IRE)CRISTIAN DEMURO · G. HERNON · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 3SODA ZABEELAUGUSTIN MADAMET · A. SCHUTZ · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 6WINNETOUHUGO BOUTIN · N. VOLZ-DEGEL · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#6

Race 5 · Lyon Parilly · 10 runners

NO POOL YET
1350m Turf · Handicap · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 10 of 10 with French form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 2HADITOUNIMICKAEL BARZALONA · P. COTTIER · draw 8 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 3STUNNING HEROHUGO BOUTIN · N. SIGAUD · draw 2 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 4EAGLE GATELORETTE GALLO · M. BOUTIN · draw 9 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 1TERREDEGUERREANTONIO ORANI · F. FORESI · draw 1 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 5LOVER SONGEDDY HARDOUIN · S. LABATE · draw 7 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 7SHATIVACRISTIAN DEMURO · E. CURY · draw 3 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 6DAR ES SALAAMEMILIEN PUILLET-RODA · M. PITART · draw 4 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 9NEW WAY BABY (IRE)BRYAN LABATE · S. LABATE · draw 5 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 8WHY CHOPEAUGUSTIN MADAMET · J. PARIZE · draw 6 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 10THAT'S LIFEMARVIN GRANDIN · P. NADOR · draw 10 · pool — · market #10—#10

Race 6 · Lyon Parilly · 10 runners

NO POOL YET
1600m Turf · Maiden · 3yo Thoroughbreds · 8 of 10 with French form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 8MADAME MAGICANTONIO ORANI · FX. WEISSMEIER · draw 6 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 3FRAYA MAS (IRE)CRISTIAN DEMURO · L. BLANCHET · draw 4 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 6PRINCESS ALICEENZO CORALLO · L. PROIETTI · draw 1 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 4NEW PEARLAURELIEN LEMAITRE · D. CHENU · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 5SVEREVAAUGUSTIN MADAMET · N. BELLANGER · draw 2 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 1FAROUKHSTEPHANE PASQUIER · HA. PANTALL · draw 7 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 2BOY DOCTOBREMARVIN GRANDIN · P. SIGAUD · draw 10 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 9CHARMYEHUGO BOUTIN · N. BELLANGER · draw 9 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 7FIDJIBERTRAND FLANDRIN · R. PHILIPPON · draw 5 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 10MENDOZADORIAN PROVOST · M. MUNCH · draw 8 · pool — · market #10—#10

Race 7 · Lyon Parilly · 7 runners

NO POOL YET
2400m Turf · Handicap · 4yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 7 with French form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 2ORAGEUXMICKAEL BARZALONA · J. REYNIER · draw 7 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 3MOZART DES BRIERESCHRISTOPHE BILLARDELLO · C. ESCUDER · draw 5 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 1GOLDEN BLUSHMARIE VELON · C. ESCUDER · draw 1 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 4DARLYVIMARVIN GRANDIN · S. EVENO · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 6POTEHUGO BOUTIN · N. VOLZ-DEGEL · draw 2 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 7RAW ENERGYDORIAN PROVOST · Y. BONNEFOY · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 5EMBIEZ (GB)CRISTIAN DEMURO · M. MUNCH · draw 4 · pool — · market #7—#7

Race 8 · Lyon Parilly · 10 runners

NO POOL YET
1600m Turf · Handicap · 4yo+ Thoroughbreds · 10 of 10 with French form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 4HE TOUCHED MEANTONIO ORANI · N. PERRET · draw 7 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 1JOH SPIRITMARVIN GRANDIN · P. SIGAUD · draw 6 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 6MARHARRYCRISTIAN DEMURO · G. HERNON · draw 4 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 3NOVA HOPEAURELIEN LEMAITRE · F. FORESI · draw 8 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 9ZASYMOKADORIAN PROVOST · M. CESANDRI · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 8PRECIOSOSTEPHANE PASQUIER · HA. PANTALL · draw 2 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 2HAZAFABIEN LEFEBVRE · A. COELHO · draw 9 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 7KODIACOLORENZO CORALLO · C. FERLAND · draw 5 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 5MAKAROVMAXENCE MARQUETTE · G. MOSSE · draw 10 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 10SAINT FIACRE. · M. WEBER · draw 1 · pool — · market #10—#10

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on French racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 1,312 French races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 712 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-7.2 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves -0.3 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: failed. The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.63 · form3 -0.37 · jokey +0.22 · sahip +0.22 · adres -0.17 · son_bitis +0.16 · antrenor +0.14 · draw -0.13 · n_gecmis +0.08 · hp +0.06 · aygir +0.05 · kgs +0.04 · siklet +0.03 · h2h +0.02 · damsire -0.01 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have French form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

One discipline, five racing worlds:TJK Tahmin · TurkeySha Tin More · Hong KongUSA Pick Day · USASA Horse Race · South AfricaRace Franch · Francethe network →