Deauville, Le Mans picks — Mon 5 Oct 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's French cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 1,312 races, for every French track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

16 races today · 1 days on file · walk-forward test on 712 races out of sample · how it scored

Mon 5 Oct 2026 · 2 tracks0 usable of 16 races · model overturns the favourite in 0Written Sun 04 Oct 2026, 21:14 Paris time · permalink

Pools not open yet

The Turkish tote opens its win pool on these 16 French races on the morning of the card (it stays thin until close to post time). This page was written from the race cards alone; verdicts and pool shares fill in about an hour before each track’s first race, once the pool has formed. Meanwhile: yesterday's results · the record.

Unproven model — read this first

In a walk-forward test on 712 races the combined model did not beat the tote pool (-0.3 points on top-3 coverage). The ranks below are published as an open experiment: each one is written before the race and scored on the record, with the pool favourite as the benchmark to beat.

Today · Mon 5 Oct 2026

16 races across Deauville, Le Mans. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = TJK win-pool share when the page was written; edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 1 · Deauville · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
2500m Synthetic · Handicap · 4yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 9 with French form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 6KERDINAFLORENT GUY · A. SANCHEZ-MARTIN · draw 4 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 4MOURATGAUTHIER DANLOUX · C. BOUTIN · draw 9 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 2SOLDIERS CHORUS (IRE)SACHA CASTELA · A. MURPHY · draw 6 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 1CATHERINE'S GIFT (IRE)JEAN-DANIEL MANCEAU · FR. MONFORT · draw 7 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 5RIGELTHIBAULT MARLIN · ED. MONFORT · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 3COEUR DE ROUMEPAUL LOTOUT · A. LOTOUT · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 8AMKARTHOMAS GUINEHEUX · N. LEENDERS · draw 1 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 7LA JAVANAISECESAR AELBRECHT (BEL) · B. DE KONINCK · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 9DSCHINGIS ARROWYANN MADEC · C. LECRIVAIN · draw 2 · pool — · market #9—#9

Race 2 · Deauville · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
2500m Synthetic · Claiming · 4yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 9 with French form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 5APPLEBLOSSOMWHITE (IRE)MARIE VELON · A. MURPHY · draw 3 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 2MARCHEMALOGLEN MEURY · M. BOUTIN · draw 5 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 4MERKURROSARIO MANGIONE · M. BOUTIN · draw 6 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 8EL CANEY (GB)LAURA POGGIONOVO · D. ARTU · draw 4 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 9STARACMARVIN GRANDIN · F. CHAPPET · draw 9 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 6ORION ROCKPERRINE CHEYER · A. BARON · draw 1 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 7CHAIN OF COMMAND (IRE)JEROME MOUTARD · A. KARKOSA · draw 8 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 3SONNAZTHEO BACHELOT · P. DECOUZ · draw 7 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 1KING MOTIFARNAUD BOURGEAIS · A. FOUASSIER · draw 2 · pool — · market #9—#9

Race 3 · Deauville · 14 runners

NO POOL YET
1300m Synthetic · Handicap · 4yo+ Thoroughbreds · 14 of 14 with French form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 6COOLMEEN ROYALCESAR BELMONT · G. BRAEM · draw 12 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 3BELVEDERE PALACE (GB)MARVIN GRANDIN · M. RULEC · draw 2 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 1SWEET ASCORALIE PACAUT · M. BOUTIN · draw 6 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 2WILD MOORDAVIDE PILITTA · A. BOTTI · draw 9 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 4REVANCHE. · CH. PLISSON · draw 7 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 5MATCH ANTHEM (IRE)TONY PICCONE · G. BRAEM · draw 8 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 7MICHELANGELOTHEO BACHELOT · D. ARTU · draw 3 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 9PAPATEOUMARIE VELON · B. DE KONINCK · draw 5 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 14HEMATITE (IRE)JULIA LACROIX · B. LEGROS · draw 4 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 10CHARISMATIC CHICK (IRE)AXELLE DUQUESNOY · C. BOUTIN · draw 10 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 12ROCAMBOLESQUEDELPHINE SANTIAGO · C. NICOT · draw 1 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 11NURTUREANTHONY CRASTUS · A. SANCHEZ-MARTIN · draw 13 · pool — · market #12—#12
  13. 13MICOLEOGLEN MEURY · C. BOUTIN · draw 14 · pool — · market #13—#13
  14. 8MORUSROSARIO MANGIONE · E. BERNHARDT · draw 11 · pool — · market #14—#14

Race 4 · Deauville · 14 runners

NO POOL YET
1300m Synthetic · Handicap · 4yo+ Thoroughbreds · 14 of 14 with French form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 1CROWDFUNDINGAXELLE DUQUESNOY · C. BOUTIN · draw 1 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 2CREW DRAGONJEROME MOUTARD · C. BOUTIN · draw 9 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 3ANDARTIS (GB)MARIE VELON · S. JESUS · draw 12 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 8WILD WESTMAXIME GUYON · N. CAULLERY · draw 6 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 4TYSONTHEO BACHELOT · S. CERULIS · draw 7 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 7ITAEWONTONY PICCONE · C. BOUTIN · draw 10 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 5SNOW GHOSTLIZE GHYS-DIETEREN (BEL) · M. SWINNENS · draw 11 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 9GALLIUSETHAN CHINCHILLA · M. BOUTIN · draw 14 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 11GOLDFIELDARTHUR VILCHIEN · S. CERULIS · draw 5 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 6HERACLESLAURA POGGIONOVO · M. RULEC · draw 4 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 10BACCHILIDE (GB)SOPHIE TISON · M. GUARNIERI · draw 3 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 12OUT OF THE BLUEELLA MUNTWYLER · M. BOUTIN · draw 13 · pool — · market #12—#12
  13. 13CLAIM THE STARS (IRE)CORALIE PACAUT · BV VAN DEN TROOST · draw 2 · pool — · market #13—#13
  14. 14FAVORY CHOPEDDY HARDOUIN · T. SPEICHER · draw 8 · pool — · market #14—#14

Race 5 · Deauville · 13 runners

NO POOL YET
1300m Synthetic · Handicap · 4yo+ Thoroughbreds · 13 of 13 with French form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 3EL MADAR (GB)MARIE VELON · S. JESUS · draw 6 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 1CRACK CITYTONY PICCONE · E. BERNHARDT · draw 8 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 13CALY ROSAYMAXENCE MARQUETTE · G. GADBLED · draw 4 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 2JIJI MY LOVELEA BAILS · FX. BELVISI · draw 9 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 6ASTERALEMARVIN GRANDIN · M. KREBS · draw 1 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 5RUE DU SAHELPERRINE CHEYER · M. VAN DEN WEGHE · draw 3 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 8GIN GEMBREEDDY HARDOUIN · C. AUVRAY · draw 2 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 10LAGOA SANTAANTHONY CRASTUS · F. MONNIER · draw 10 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 11PALIMERO (GER)ROSARIO MANGIONE · K. SANSEN · draw 7 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 7BREATHE ON (IRE)SOPHIE TISON · E. HENDRICKX · draw 5 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 4LADY PINKDELPHINE SANTIAGO · C. NICOT · draw 13 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 12MEHANYDREAMARTHUR VILCHIEN · M. ROSSEEL · draw 12 · pool — · market #12—#12
  13. 9STRANGERJULIA LACROIX · B. LEGROS · draw 11 · pool — · market #13—#13

Race 6 · Deauville · 11 runners

NO POOL YET
1300m Synthetic · Claiming · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 9 of 11 with French form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 6SACREE PHILOMENE (IRE)MAXIME GUYON · L. GADBIN · draw 10 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 1LAMEGO (GB)TONY PICCONE · A. MURPHY · draw 9 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 3MR SAYLEA BAILS · M. BOUTIN · draw 1 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 4REGAL CHOPJEROME MOUTARD · C. BOUTIN · draw 4 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 11HAVANISTA (GB)MARVIN GRANDIN · HF. DEVIN · draw 8 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 5FETE DE TROPCORALIE PACAUT · M. BOUTIN · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 7GONAFOOTMARIE VELON · A. FOUASSIER · draw 3 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 8RIMANOVKHAGLEN MEURY · M. DELCHER SANCHEZ · draw 11 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 9DUBARAEDDY HARDOUIN · M. RULEC · draw 7 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 2SKAROSETHAN CHINCHILLA · M. BOUTIN · draw 5 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 10FERRA CHOPEROSARIO MANGIONE · F. GUYADER · draw 2 · pool — · market #11—#11

Race 7 · Deauville · 12 runners

NO POOL YET
1900m Synthetic · Claiming · 3yo Thoroughbreds · 9 of 12 with French form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 3STRATOVULCANO (GB)JEROME MOUTARD · P&J. BRANDT · draw 1 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 1MONARCOGLEN MEURY · M. BOUTIN · draw 5 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 2DEUX PONTS (GER)LAURA POGGIONOVO · M. RULEC · draw 12 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 9CORYPHEENERONAN THOMAS · C. LECRIVAIN · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 11SPARKS OF LOVECORALIE PACAUT · D. ARTU · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 5RUE RECAMIERTIMOTHE BREBION · L. GADBIN · draw 10 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 4FAUSTIMINELEA BAILS · FX. BELVISI · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 6VILLA ADRIENNE (IRE)GABRIEL ROTH LE VAILLANT · Y. BARBEROT · draw 3 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 8GARIGASOPHIE TISON · M. GUARNIERI · draw 11 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 7ALTIACHRISTOPHER RAIMBAULT · A. FOUASSIER · draw 6 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 12PRIMA O POIENZO CORALLO · A. BUDKA · draw 9 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 10GAMBERRAMAELIE PIEN · M. BOUTIN · draw 8 · pool — · market #12—#12

Race 8 · Deauville · 10 runners

NO POOL YET
1900m Synthetic · Handicap · 4yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 10 with French form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 4USER AMISTOSOCESAR BELMONT · S. PECORARO · draw 7 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 1SAINT HELLIERAXELLE DUQUESNOY · C. BOUTIN · draw 4 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 3WOFF (GER)WARREN LEVESQUE · S. CERULIS · draw 3 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 7COSMO BEAUMAXENCE MARQUETTE · G. MOSSE · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 5LISEO (IRE)JEROME MOUTARD · S. CERULIS · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 6GOLFEUR (GB)TIMOTHE BREBION · L. GADBIN · draw 9 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 8VOLCANOPIERRE BAZIRE · A. SCHUTZ · draw 10 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 10MURRAY (GER)CORALIE PACAUT · BV VAN DEN TROOST · draw 1 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 2CHARLESQUINT (IRE)ROSARIO MANGIONE · M. BOUTIN · draw 8 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 9SIETE MISTERIOS (IRE)LEA BAILS · S. GOUYETTE · draw 6 · pool — · market #10—#10

Race 1 · Le Mans · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
1400m Turf · Allowance · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 6 of 8 with French form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 4KALIMAAT (GB)PIERRE-CHARLES BOUDOT · A&L. FABRE · draw 1 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 5HARMONY IN BLUEANTOINE HAMELIN · P.DE CHEVIGNY · draw 8 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 1FARADAY (IRE)HUGO BOUTIN · HF. DEVIN · draw 4 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 2TIMURSTEPHANE PASQUIER · D. ARTU · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 3MISS CHOCO (IRE)AUGUSTIN MADAMET · D. TOROK · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 6APPENLUDOVIC BOISSEAU · G. PANNIER · draw 7 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 7YAFTABELLAIORITZ MENDIZABAL · SM. AGUINSACA ARMIJOS · draw 5 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 8ALCANEPIERRE REMOUE · PIER. MENARD · draw 6 · pool — · market #8—#8

Race 2 · Le Mans · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
3200m Turf · Allowance · 3yo Thoroughbreds · 3 of 9 with French form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 4FONROMYHUGO MOUESAN · AJ. BAPTISTA RIBEIRO DE ABREU · draw 8 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 9CARAMELPIERRE-CHARLES BOUDOT · A&L. FABRE · draw 3 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 5STORY WAYAUGUSTIN MADAMET · JPH. DUBOIS · draw 7 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 1SACRIFICE (IRE)ANTOINE HAMELIN · F. CHAPPET · draw 9 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 2BUBBLESANAURELIEN LEMAITRE · A. MURPHY · draw 6 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 7NEMESIS HASPIERRE REMOUE · S. ZULIANI · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 8FLINTSHEVA DUGROHOOLIVIER D' ANDIGNE · A. COUETIL · draw 2 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 6LACRAHUGO LEBOUC · N. LEENDERS · draw 1 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 3TESTANACECILIA POIRIER · FR. MONFORT · draw 4 · pool — · market #9—#9

Race 3 · Le Mans · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
1950m Turf · Maiden, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 1 of 8 with French form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 3INDIAN BELLEGUILLAUME TROLLEY DE PREVAUX · TIM. DONWORTH · draw 5 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 5NAKAIAMARTIN PROTTI · HA. PANTALL · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 4SYNNEFIALUDOVIC BOISSEAU · V. HEAD · draw 4 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 1INTIME STARIORITZ MENDIZABAL · ED. MONFORT · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 6ELLYRAAMBRE MOLINS · P.DE CHEVIGNY · draw 6 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 8HAYA KOVACLEMENT LECOEUVRE · A. FOUASSIER · draw 2 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 2LAST CARAT FALHUGO LEBOUC · J. BOISNARD · draw 8 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 7OSMOSE PRECIEUSEANTHONY BERNARD · M. DESVAUX · draw 7 · pool — · market #8—#8

Race 4 · Le Mans · 8 runners

NO POOL YET
1950m Turf · Allowance · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 3 of 8 with French form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 2NEREUS (GB)PIERRE-CHARLES BOUDOT · HF. DEVIN · draw 3 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 1BLACKSKAREBBE VERHESTRAETEN · A. MURPHY · draw 6 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 3AROK ATAOSTEPHANE PASQUIER · C. FERLAND · draw 5 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 5ANGEL BREIZHAXEL BARON · L. EDON · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 4IPANEMA ROSE (IRE)LUDOVIC BOISSEAU · V. HEAD · draw 1 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 7ERRUPTIUMPIERRE REMOUE · PIER. MENARD · draw 8 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 8DRITAANTHONY BERNARD · G. RARICK · draw 4 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 6WHY NOT MECHRISTOPHER GROSBOIS · C. CORDUAN · draw 7 · pool — · market #8—#8

Race 5 · Le Mans · 12 runners

NO POOL YET
1950m Turf · Maiden · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 3 of 12 with French form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 2PICCOLO ANGELOTHOMAS TRULLIER · JUL. PHELIPPON · draw 10 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 5SLIDING WAYANTOINE HAMELIN · BUTEL & BEAUNEZ · draw 3 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 4COLCHESTERAUGUSTIN MADAMET · T. SPEICHER · draw 4 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 3TRUE TIMEMARTIN PROTTI · HA. PANTALL · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 7LIKEROLIVIER D' ANDIGNE · G. COLLET · draw 1 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 1HAPPY TAJCHRISTOPHER GROSBOIS · B. AUDOUIN · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 10VLATY'LEZLUDOVIC BOISSEAU · L. POSTIC · draw 12 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 6KOHANA CHOPANTHONY BERNARD · L. GADBIN · draw 6 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 11TESTIRIVERJULIEN GUILLOCHON · FR. MONFORT · draw 8 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 8MADH'WORLDMAXIMILIEN JUSTUM · M. JUSTUM · draw 7 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 9GALADINPIERRE REMOUE · PIER. MENARD · draw 9 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 12FLINTSH DU GROHO (IRE)HUGO LEBOUC · A. FOUASSIER · draw 11 · pool — · market #12—#12

Race 6 · Le Mans · 10 runners

NO POOL YET
1600m Turf · Allowance · 3yo Thoroughbreds · 9 of 10 with French form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 10FEELGOODPIERRE-CHARLES BOUDOT · M. BRASME · draw 4 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 4SILVER REELDORIAN PROVOST · T. SPEICHER · draw 6 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 5MR LOPE CEN (IRE)AURELIEN LEMAITRE · P. OLAVE VALDIVIELSO · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 1BALAKIREV (IRE)HUGO BOUTIN · FH. GRAFFARD · draw 10 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 2ROSTAK (IRE)CLEMENT LECOEUVRE · FH. GRAFFARD · draw 9 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 8CHILADA (GB)AUGUSTIN MADAMET · D. TOROK · draw 7 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 7LIBERTY AMOURANTOINE HAMELIN · G. BIETOLINI · draw 1 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 3KENZEL (IRE)PIERRE REMOUE · PIER. MENARD · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 9STAR OF HOPE (IRE)MARTIN PROTTI · HA. PANTALL · draw 5 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 6ISABELLA GIGANTE (IRE)HUGO LEBOUC · L. CARBERRY · draw 3 · pool — · market #10—#10

Race 7 · Le Mans · 10 runners

NO POOL YET
1600m Turf · Handicap · 4yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 10 with French form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 10LEOPARDUCCIOFRIDA VALLE SKAR · C. BARANDE BARBE · draw 8 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 2TOIMY SONMARTIN PROTTI · J. JIMENEZ MENA · draw 3 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 4ROUGEGARDEAXEL BARON · P.DE CHEVIGNY · draw 5 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 5AZIMUTSEBBE VERHESTRAETEN · A. MURPHY · draw 4 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 7MODERN SPIRITTHOMAS TRULLIER · JUL. PHELIPPON · draw 6 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 3MARKUSAMBRE MOLINS · G. PANNIER · draw 1 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 1CICCIO BOYMAXIMILIEN JUSTUM · M. JUSTUM · draw 10 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 9DRIMYSAUGUSTIN MADAMET · L. GUILLOUX · draw 2 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 6KER WELENHUGO LEBOUC · N. LEENDERS · draw 7 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 8BE TRUEIORITZ MENDIZABAL · J. JIMENEZ MENA · draw 9 · pool — · market #10—#10

Race 8 · Le Mans · 15 runners

NO POOL YET
1600m Turf · Handicap · 3yo Thoroughbreds · 9 of 15 with French form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 1BUDOKAN (IRE)EBBE VERHESTRAETEN · A. MURPHY · draw 5 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 2AEDION (GB)AURELIEN LEMAITRE · L. BLANCHET · draw 4 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 3WESTMINSTER COYOTE (IRE)HUGO JOURNIAC · Y. BARBEROT · draw 13 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 5SOCIANDOAMBRE MOLINS · J. PLANQUE · draw 6 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 8BAIETA (GB)YOANN ROUSSET · K. PLISSON · draw 1 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 10EXCESSIVELUDOVIC BOISSEAU · A. PEAN · draw 10 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 12HAPP'INESTHOMAS TRULLIER · H. MENNESSIER MARTINEZ · draw 3 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 7FELINI (IRE)YOANN BARILLE · ED. MONFORT · draw 14 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 6MICHELHUGO LEBOUC · C. LOTOUX · draw 12 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 13PERSIAN HEROEAXEL BARON · M. NIGGE · draw 11 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 14WIL'DREAMPIERRE REMOUE · M. DREAN · draw 2 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 11FERDYCECILIA POIRIER · FR. MONFORT · draw 9 · pool — · market #12—#12
  13. 9IRIA CHOPEIORITZ MENDIZABAL · J. JIMENEZ MENA · draw 8 · pool — · market #13—#13
  14. 15BEST SISTERMAXIMILIEN JUSTUM · L. EDON · draw 7 · pool — · market #14—#14
  15. 4SHIRDIHENGECHRISTOPHER GROSBOIS · K. PLISSON · draw 15 · pool — · market #15—#15

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on French racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 1,312 French races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 712 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-7.2 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves -0.3 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: failed. The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.63 · form3 -0.37 · jokey +0.22 · sahip +0.22 · adres -0.17 · son_bitis +0.16 · antrenor +0.14 · draw -0.13 · n_gecmis +0.08 · hp +0.06 · aygir +0.05 · kgs +0.04 · siklet +0.03 · h2h +0.02 · damsire -0.01 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have French form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

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